Millions of people die each year on the world’s roads, with many more sustaining serious injuries as a result of road traffic crashes. Road safety issues are most severe in low- and middle-income countries and are most likely to affect vulnerable road users such as pedestrians, cyclists, and users of two- and three-wheelers. As these countries continue to motorize, road safety impacts may worsen. This poster session presents research from a variety of developing countries looking at the adoption of personal vehicles and implications for road safety, congestion, and the environment.
Automobile Level of Service Criteria for the Urban Corridors in India
Drisya Manghat (firstname.lastname@example.org), National Institute of Technology, CalicutShow Abstract
Krishnamurthy Karuppanagounder, National Institute of Technology, Calicut
Level of service (LOS) is the quality measure describing the operational conditions in a transportation facility. There are six Automobile LOS (ALOS) classes from A – F, defined by Highway capacity manual 2010 (HCM 2010) to evaluate the quality of travel on homogeneous urban corridors. Since India's urban traffic is heterogeneous, HCM 2010 LOS models are not accurately conveying their performance quality. So, this research suggests a new approach for estimating the ALOS on heterogeneous urban corridors by considering the microscopic parameters of traffic flow. Thirteen urban segments were selected from Ernakulam and Coimbatore, India, to study the travel characteristics of automobiles. Coefficient of Variation of speed (CV), Delay Rate Index (DRI), and Speed Ratio (SR) were found to be the best measures of effectiveness to define ALOS. The threshold values calculated using K-means clustering for CV, DRI, and SR were obtained as 11.02 – 65.78, 0.08 – 0.71, and 0.91 – 0.43, respectively. Regression models were developed using the 80% of the collected data, and statistical values of Pearson's R, R2, standard error of the estimate, and RMSE values were found to be 0.874, 0.764, 0.081, and 0.031 respectively. All the models showed excellent quality with higher precision in prediction with t-statistics greater than ± 0.65, and p-statistics less than 0.05.
Modeling Conflict Risk Severity during Overtaking Maneuver in Two-Lane Two-Way Highway in Heterogeneous Traffic Environment of a Developing Country
S M Mahmud, Accident Research Institute (ARI)Show Abstract
Luis Ferreira, University of Queensland
Md. Shamsul Hoque, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology
Ahmad Tavassoli, University of Queensland
Safety risk during overtaking maneuvers on a two-lane highway in an heterogeneous traffic environment of a developing country has been evaluated here in terms of nature of probable conflicts and severity of defined conflicts. The application of surrogate safety proximity indicators in real-world traffic environment has been used. To gain a better understanding of the associated factors affecting safety risk for overtaking maneuvers, a conflict risk severity model during overtaking maneuver has been developed. The study focused on the relevance of three alternate discrete outcome frameworks, namely multinomial logit, ordered probit, and mixed logit models. The best fitted model was identified and estimated. The impact of the significant attributes has also been evaluated. Data has collected from a section of two-lane highway in Bangladesh using both observational and computer vision techniques. A total of 46 explanatory variables related with overtaking maneuver were examined. The results show that speed differential between overtaking and overtaken vehicles have a significant impact on the probability of severe conflicts. Moreover, the presence of a bus as an overtaking vehicle has found to contribute significantly to the severity of conflicts. The current study makes substantial research contributions related to overtaking behavior and safety risk evaluation during overtaking in mix traffic environment in developing countries. The output of the study can be used as a tool for the evaluation of overtaking maneuver and associated safety risk proactively, whilst acknowledging the limited resources and facilities in developing countries.
A Systematic Modeling Approach for Estimation of Mode Shift Behavior and Policy Analysis to Encourage E-Bike Use in India
Manivel M, NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY TIRUCHIRAPALLIShow Abstract
Sankaran Marisamynathan, National Institute of Technology, Calicut
For developing a sustainable transportation system, EV established increasing attention from various stakeholders and its market has been strongly expanded in recent years. Thus, the objectives of this study are to identify various factors which significantly affect usage of EB, to develop riders’ mode shift model for accepting EB, and to prioritize the proposed policies for encouraging EB use in India. Five section of questionnaire form was developed based on outcome of literature, field conditions, and opinion of transport experts. A total of 522 samples were finalized for model development which were collected from four states in India. The difference between EB usage with respect to personal attributes, socioeconomic characteristics, travel information, and EB features were identified using Pearson, Kendall’s T, Spearman’s rho correlations and odd ratio tests. The results showed that gender, travel distance, fuel expenditure, and factors on EB were significantly influenced mode shift behavior of rider’s towards EB. Ordered Probit Model (OPM) was developed to estimate mode shit behavior from conventional two-wheeler to EB. Model was validated and their statistical performance outcomes indicated that OPM predicted mode shift behavior precisely that fits for Indian conditions. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was adopted to prioritize the proposed policies for encouraging EB use. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to validate proposed AHP technique. Result indicates that among all six polices, delivering high speed EB will increase the willingness for shifting to EB. Finally, AHP approach was applied for all four states and state wise policies were prioritized for further recommendation.
Pedestrian Behavior in A Mexican Signalized Intersection: An Observational Study in Santiago De Querétaro
Saul Obregon-Biosca, Universidad Autonoma de QueretaroShow Abstract
Anubis Navarro Rosas, Universidad Autonoma de Queretaro
Road events have become a public health problem. The bibliography suggests that not following the traffic signals by pedestrians is one of the most common causes of accidents. This research estimates, through an observational study, four models to establish the significance variables in the pedestrians’ obedience of traffic signals in an intersection. During rush hours, 6,709 pedestrian movements were recorded in the city of Santiago de Querétaro to analyze their behavior. The variables correspond to the characteristics of the pedestrian, infrastructure, group behavior, obedience of traffic signals, interaction with vehicles and the time of day. The existence of vehicular flow, the time of day, and the fact that the pedestrian crossing is obstructed are the variables with the greatest influence on the probability that the pedestrian will not assume risk behaviors when crossing. The factors that influence the probability of obeying the pedestrian traffic light are the time of day, the existence of vehicular flow and the obedience of the pedestrian crossing; for this last are the number of lanes, the obedience to the pedestrian traffic light and if the pedestrian crossing is obstructed; while for the probability of running are the existence of vehicular flow, the obedience to the pedestrian traffic light and waiting in group. Men engage in more risky behaviors than women and people over 60 years old assume less risky behaviors than younger people. This study represents a first approach to the explanation of the variables that influence the observance of traffic signals and risk behaviors.
Analysis of Factors Influencing Delivery E-bikes’ Red-light Running Behavior: A Mixed Binary Logit Approach
Fan Zhang, Southeast UniversityShow Abstract
Huitao Lv, Southeast University
Yanjie Ji, Southeast University
Delivery e-bike (DEB) group has become an important part of the urban e-bike group in China. The red-light running (RLR) behavior of DEBs is a main cause of traffic accidents of this group at signalized intersections. This paper aims to explore the influencing factors of delivery and ordinary e-bike riders running red lights and compare the differences between the two e-bike groups, which help to develop countermeasures to reduce such behaviors. In this study, we employed the mixed binary logistic model to capture the unobserved heterogeneity effects. With this approach, factors such as individual characteristics, behavioral variables, characteristics of signalized intersections and traffic environment were examined. The data of e-bikes crossing behaviors at four signalized intersections in Xi'an, China were collected, and 3,335 samples of e-bikes were recorded. The results showed that delivery riders are more likely to run red lights than ordinary riders. Factors that influence RLR behaviors of the two e-bike subgroups are different. Factors associated with the unobserved heterogeneity include age, observation time, red-light stage and traffic light type. Results from the models provide insights for future development of e-bikes’ RLR behavior intervention systems to improve traffic safety at intersections.
Investigating factors that affect the intention to use electric motorcycles: A case study of Karachi, Pakistan
Sajan Shaikh, Dalian University of TechnologyShow Abstract
Hong-feng Xu, Dalian University of Technology
Farrukh Baig, Dalian University of Technology
Dong Zhang (email@example.com), Dalian University of Technology
The technology of electric motorcycles evolved substantially in the past decades. Considering its advantage in emission and energy efficiency, it is likely to play a vital role in the future transport system. Researchers have explored the potential impacts of electric motorcycles, but few have focused on the intentions of the public to adopt; hence, the present paper aimed to examine the factors that may influence the behavioral intentions of using electric motorcycles in Pakistan. As an extension of the technology acceptance model, environmental concern, and perceived value are included with perceived usefulness, perceived easiness of use as predictors of the intention to use electric motorcycles. With a sample of 228 valid responses from Karachi, Pakistan, two structural equation models have been estimated and compared. It is found that when only perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use included, they both impose a direct influence on the adoption intention. After adding the perceived value and environmental concern, more variation of behavior intention is explained in terms of R-square. However, the impact of perceived ease of use is mediated by perceived usefulness. Policy recommendations for government and electric manufacture on purchasing intention promotion are proposed accordingly.
Fatal Crash Reporting in Media: A Case Study on Bangladesh
Subasish Das, Texas A&M UniversityShow Abstract
Traffic crashes are a major public health concern, resulting in over 1.35 million deaths worldwide in 2016. The number of reported traffic fatalities in Bangladesh was 2,376 in 2016. However, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated that the true value ranges between 20,730 to 29,177. Editorial traffic crash reports in Bangladesh vary widely in the range of crashes reported. This study collected traffic crash reports from online English daily newspapers by setting a Google News Alert. The current study prepared a database of 419 crash-related reports during the period of six months (November 2018 to April 2019). The reports contain a bag of 81,019 words. The results reveal that online news coverage tends to vary from news agency to news agency. The reports usually do not cover key contributing factors of crash occurrences. Additionally, geometric features of crash occurrence sites are rarely reported. The findings show that it is important to decipher media coverage to understand the potential safety risk measures in Bangladesh. The current findings provide strong support for the notion that there is a need for a guideline that can help the journalists adequately document a crash report in media.
Analyzing Habit of Using Personal Modes and its Breaking through Structural Equation Modeling
Vasudevan N, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of TechnologyShow Abstract
Ninad Gore, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology
Rupali Zope, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology
Shriniwas Arkatkar, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology
Gaurang Joshi, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology
The present study is focused on the habit of travel by using personal modes which is considered as one of the major factor that resist the shift behavior of choice riders to public transport. Habit developed among two-wheeler and car users is analyzed considering their psychological, socio-economic-demographic and convenience factors. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) technique is adopted to quantify habit of travel developed in travellers. Surat, a metropolitan city in the Indian State of Gujarat is considered as the study area where the share of personal mode is 31% and that of public transport is 4%. The dismally low share of public transport since past two decades has acted as a catalyst in the development of habit of using personal modes among users in the city. The influence and the relationship between various psychological, socio-economic-demographic and convenience factors in the development of habit is very well established using SEM approach. Results elicited that the convenience in trip-chaining, desire to drive, easy access etc. influences the development of habit. Further, to attract the choice riders towards sustainable transport modes like public and non-motorized transport modes, three transit supportive policies were proposed and tested. The impact of the developed policies to attract the choice riders by breaking their habit is analyzed using SEM models. The results of the policy tests revealed that the proposed polices are feasible and are able to break the inculcated habit and can recommend to policy makers and stake holders to develop sustainable urban transport policies.
Factors Affecting Motorcyclists’ Injury Severities in Pakistan: A Random Parameter Logit Model Approach
Amjad Pervez (firstname.lastname@example.org), Central South UniversityShow Abstract
Jaeyoung Lee, Central South University
Motorcycles constitute 74% of the total registered vehicles in Pakistan. Since the last decade, its number has been increased by 613%, showing that it is an essential and popular mode of transportation in the country. Therefore, the present study estimated a random parameter logit model to investigate the factors influencing the motorcycle injury severity using crash data of Karachi city collected through road traffic injuries surveillance system. Fatal and non-fatal crashes are used as categories of motorcyclist injury severity levels to calibrate the model. Mainly the effects of crash specific factors, motorcyclists’ characteristics, and temporal factors are considered for motorcycle-injury severity analysis. It was revealed that the probability of fatal injury increases for crashes: during the summer season, occurring on weekends, in the early morning hours or nighttime, involving teenage, young and older riders, due to female pillion rider clothes stuck in wheel, involving a heavy vehicle and single-vehicle collisions. Also, the probability of non-fatal injuries increases for crashes that involve pillion passengers and crashes where a motorcycle was involved. The research findings suggest that besides measures to control the risky motorcyclists’ behavior, there is a need to separate motorcycles from heavy vehicles and educate the female pillion rider to be careful while riding the motorcycle. The results are expected to generate more discussion and interest in motorcycle safety in the country and can be used by the enforcement agencies to improve motorcycle safety in the country, as well as in other developing countries with similar situations.
Self-Reported Driving Behavior and Risk Perception in Auto-Rickshaw Drivers in Varanasi
Shrey Agrawal, Indian Institute of Technology, KanpurShow Abstract
Abhisek Mudgal, Indian Institute of Technology, Varanasi
Road accidents are one of the leading causes of death all over the world with 93% of all accidents taking place in low and middle income countries. Driver behaviour is an important factor that directly or indirectly affects road accidents. This study explores the driving behaviour and risk perception of auto-rickshaw (taxi) drivers in Varanasi (India), a city which represents a typical heterogeneous and non-lane traffic. The Manchester driver behavior questionnaire was adapted to developing countries to collect data that included 111 auto-rickshaw drivers between the age of 17 and 55 years. Factor analysis confirmed three driver behavior factors namely “error and lapses”, “ordinary violations” and “aggressive violations”. The “error and lapses” behavior was the most prominent factor and this was corroborated with existing Indian road traffic accident studies. These findings may be useful in developing targeted interventions and policies aimed at addressing factors contributing to risky driving and crashes especially among auto- rickshaw drivers.
What Affects Pedestrian Crossing Difficulty at Urban Intersections in a Developing Country?
Dipanjan Mukherjee, Indian Institute of Technology KharagpurShow Abstract
Sudeshna Mitra (email@example.com), The World Bank
While the traditional approaches to crash risk identification relied upon police-reported crash data analysis, transportation professionals increasingly recognize the significance of proactively identifying potential crash risks due to the unavailability of sound crash data in developing countries. In a proactive approach, an individual’s risk perception offers important information on probable crash risk, which may be useful in detecting high-risk sites. As the risk of pedestrian crashes is not uniform across the road network in an urban area, it may be expected that pedestrian’s perceived “crossing difficulty” would also vary across the sites. In this context, the present study has examined how pedestrian’s perceived crossing difficulty and actual crash statistics compare across several intersections in an urban setup in a developing country. The study outcomes indicate that pedestrian’s perceived crossing difficulty is a good surrogate of fatal pedestrian crashes at the intersection-level in Kolkata City, India. Subsequently, a set of ordered logit models are developed to examine how the built environment, traffic operational parameters, and pedestrian-level attributes influence the pedestrian’s perceived crossing difficulty. The study outcomes indicate that high vehicle and pedestrian volume, high approaching speed of the vehicles, absence of police personnel, absence of pedestrian-friendly infrastructure for the public transport users, absence of signalized control (for traffic as well as pedestrians), inadequate sight distance, on-street parking, encroachment of footpath, non-standard marking of the pedestrian crosswalk, presence of slum areas, wider at-grade crossing, and longer waiting time before crossing significantly affect pedestrian’s crossing difficulty at the urban intersection-level.
Modelling the Effects of COVID-19 on Mode Choice Behaviour in India
Eeshan Bhaduri, Indian Institute of Technology KharagpurShow Abstract
Manoj BS, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur
Zia Wadud, University of Leeds
Arkopal Goswami, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur
Charisma Choudhury (firstname.lastname@example.org), University of Leeds
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented changes in our travel behaviour. The limited number of research work conducted to date have demonstrated that different socio-demographic groups of different countries have changed travel behaviour in response to COVID-19 in different ways (e.g. ( 1 , 2 ) etc.). But, to the best of our knowledge, no studies to date have modelled the relationship between changes in transport mode usage and traveller characteristics in order to quantify the associated heterogeneity. In this paper, we address this gap by developing mathematical models to quantify the effect of the socio-demographic characteristics of the travellers on the mode-specific trip frequencies before (January 2020) and during the early stages of COVID-19 spread in India (March 2020). Primary data collected from 498 respondents participating in online surveys have been used to estimate multiple discrete choice extreme value models. Estimation results indicate significant presence of inertia to continue using the Pre-COVID modes, with higher propensities to shift to virtual (e.g. working from home, online shopping, etc.) and private modes (e.g. car, motorcycle) from shared ones (e.g. bus and ride-share options). The extent of inertia varies with the trip purpose (commute and discretionary) and trip lengths. The results also demonstrate significant heterogeneity based on age, income, and working status of the respondent. The findings will be directly useful for planners and policy-makers in India as well as some other countries of the Global South in better predicting the mode-specific demand levels and subsequently, making better investment and operational decisions.
Exploring Public Perception towards Travel and COVID-19 Preventive Measures: Insights from the Early Stages of Lockdown in India
Kinjal Bhattacharyya, Indian Institute of Technology KharagpurShow Abstract
Saurabh Dandapat, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur
Sai Annam, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur
KAUSTUBH SAYSARDAR, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur
Bhargab Maitra, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur
The global outbreak of Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has posed multifaceted challenges to the world. In order to restrict the spread of the highly contagious virus, the Government of India imposed lockdown and social distancing rules on March 24, 2020. As the experiences from lockdown are completely new, a critical scientific question arises on how to derive the social impact of the lockdown and identify the scopes for imposing more efficient and effective lockdown in the future, if the situation demands, as well as formulating future transport strategies. In this regard, the present study was aimed to bring out the evidences related to public perceptions and attitude towards travel-related activities and preventive measures during the early stages of lockdown in Indian cities. A five-stage survey instrument was designed and circulated through various online modes to make it convenient to the respondents and also to achieve a greater geographical coverage within a short period of time. The survey responses were analysed to obtain meaningful insights and derive implications in four specific aspects - attitude towards strategies and preventive measures, long-distance travel characteristics, perceptions towards essential services, and, perceptions towards post-lockdown travel. The study reports several interesting observations with respect to each of the above-mentioned aspects that may be of use to the policy and decision-makers in the near future.
Impact of COVID-19 on Transportation in Lagos, Nigeria
Emmanuel Mogaji, University of GreenwichShow Abstract
Amjad Pervez (email@example.com), Central South University
The growing number of studies on the impact of COVID-19 are often discussed in the context of developed countries, highlighting a gap in the understanding of how the pandemic is impacting developing countries. This theoretical commentary focuses on the present and long-term impact of COVID-19 on transportation in Lagos State, Nigeria. The paper recognises the effect on transportation in emerging economies, where lockdowns and restrictions on movement may be ineffective, a state with high population density, poor transportation infrastructure and a large informal economy. Adopting the 'avoid-shift-improve' framework, this paper presents practical implications for public and private sector policymakers, as they navigate this precarious time and chart a new path for individuals and Nigeria.
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