Can we make assets and infrastructure last longer, given tight DOT budgets and increased demand? Every unit of distance traveled by a loaded “18-wheeler” causes over 9000 times the road wear of a light-duty vehicle. Congested roads escalate delay, emissions, and other costs, impacting community health and resilience. London and Sweden decreased demand with bicycling improvements and congestion charging. This session will consider current technology pathways alongside the demand pathways and a re-emphasis of approaches in a period of uncertainty.
How do we make our roads and infrastructure last longer, given tight budgets and all the demands DOTs face? Every avoided trip is worth something to DOTs, whether it be their maintenance obligations or the ability to provide a reliable transportation system. Los Angeles DOT is exploring implementing Infrastructure as a Service, with better road costing, perhaps through VMT charges. Every unit of distance traveled by one properly loaded “18-wheeler” causes over 9000 times the road wear of a light duty vehicle. In addition usage that adds congestion to roads escalates delay and emissions and other costs, impacting health and resilience. The first (delayed) driver in 5 miles of crawling traffic doubles his emissions, and this is about equal to the extra pollution he causes with the cars behind him. London and Sweden have effectively brought down demand with bicycling improvements and congestion charging. Now, with technology changes like AVs and EVs in the pipeline, along with shared vehicles, what kind of demand are we planning for? What kind of demand could we need to plan for (higher or lower) and what is shaping that? This session will consider whether we are on track with the technology pathways alongside the demand pathways and suggest if we need a rethink or re-emphasis of approaches or whether we are just in a period of uncertainty. How will this affect DOT maintenance?
Introduction, David Ungemah, WSP
Giovanni Circella, What Affects U.S. Passenger Travel? Exploring Current Trends and Future Uncertainties Affecting Travel Demand,
Greg Marsden, Prof. of Transport Governance, Inst. for Transport Studies, Univ. of Leeds, Supply Futures and Demand Futures,
Noreen McDonald, Assoc. Professor & Chair, DCRP, UNC at Chapel Hill, Planning transport infrastructure in a time of uncertainty: Examination of approaches in the UK,
Guineng Chen and Jari Kauppila, Global Urban Passenger Travel Demand and CO2 Emission to 2050: A New Model
Global Urban Passenger Travel Demand and CO2 Emission to 2050: A New Model
Guineng Chen, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)Show Abstract
Jari Kauppila, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
This paper presents long-term scenarios on the development of urban passenger mobility and related CO2 emissions up to 2050 in global cities, which have population above 300 thousand based on the International Transport Forum’s (ITF) new global urban passenger transport model. Results from the policy scenarios analysis show that, in the baseline scenario, total motorised mobility and related CO2 emissions in cities will grow by 94% and 27% in 2050 compared with 2015, respectively. The share of private cars will continue to increase in developing regions while slightly decreasing in developed economies. Policy measures exist to fulfil mobility demand while reducing carbon-intensity of the travel. Technology contributes the most to the CO2 mitigation in the most transit-oriented scenario. Behavioural policies, such as fuel tax, lower transit fares or controlled urban sprawl can bring the additional mitigation effort required to make cities sustainable and are essential to combat congestion and health issues.
What Affects U.S. Passenger Travel? Exploring Current Trends and Future Uncertainties Affecting Travel Demand
Giovanni Circella, University of California, Davis
Planning transport infrastructure in a time of uncertainty: Examination of approaches in the UK
Noreen McDonald, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
Supply Futures and Demand Futures
Greg Marsden, University of Leeds
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