From Peak Hour to Time of Day: A Case Study of a Novel Parking Occupancy Measure and an Evaluation of Infill Development and Carsharing as Solutions to Parking Oversupply
Calvin Thigpen, LimeShow Abstract
In the US, parking is oversupplied in both residential and commercial settings. One major cause of this pattern is the widespread application of minimum parking standards, which typically supply sufficient or excess parking for peak-hour demand. Yet the evidence necessary for parking reform is thin, and alternatives to the peak-hour metric still under-explored. In this paper, I conduct systematic observations in a townhouse apartment complex in Davis, CA to understand hourly variation in parking occupancy. I find that a minimum of 34% and a maximum of 55% of parking spaces, on average, are occupied over the course of a day. Consequently, 45% of spaces sit unused across an entire day and 34% of spaces are underused (sit full the entire day). I therefore examine policy solutions to this oversupply of parking, demonstrating the changes necessary to implement infill development and carshare, as well as challenges to their success. I estimate a multilevel latent class analysis to identify distinct patterns of household parking use, and find that between 40% and 54% of households could be likely candidates for carshare adoption.
Geospatial Trends in Light Rail Transit's Effects on Nearby House Prices in Charlotte, North Carolina
Yue Ke, Argonne National LaboratoryShow Abstract
Konstantina Gkritza, Purdue University
Urban transportation planners and policymakers have
increasingly turned to light rail transit (LRT) systems as a means to address
congestion and greenhouse gas emissions problems across the US. Further, as
transportation infrastructure projects are highly correlated with economic
growth, LRTs are seen as a means to revitalize decayed urban centers. Referred
to as a capitalization of transit benefits, previous studies typically use
a-spatial methods to examine the magnitude and direction of premiums on real
estate prices for properties near LRT lines. This research argues that spatial
models are more appropriate for such analyses. Using single family residence
(SFR) sales data from Charlotte, NC, between 2008-2016, we find that the price
per square foot of properties located between half and one mile away from LRT
stations have a $38.03 premium compared to houses located within a half mile of
an LRT station, ceteris paribus. Further, SFRs near LRT stations with bike racks
and bike lockers command premiums of $18.48/sqft and $12.92/sqft, respectively.
These results suggest that while there is a significant nuisance effect
associated with living next to stations, SFR owners within the study area do
value the increased accessibility associated with LRT.
A Spatiotemporal Hedonic Price Model to Investigate the Dynamics of Housing Prices in Contexts of Urban Form and Transportation Services in Toronto
Jason Hawkins, University of TorontoShow Abstract
Khandker Nurul Habib, University of Toronto
A spatio-temporal hedonic price model is developed for
the Greater Toronto area to examine the effects of urban configurations and
proximity to transit services on housing price. A spatial Durbin panel model is
utilized to account for both spatial and temporal autocorrelation. This model is
shown to have advantages through its ability to reduce the number of explanatory
variables required to obtain a strong fit with empirical data. Analysis is
completed for the period of 1996 to 2017 and distinctions are made in housing
stock between single-family houses, townhouses, and condominiums. It is shown
that heterogeneities exist between the hedonic representations of each
dwelling type and separate models should be employed for
Influence of Built Environment on Mobility Patterns in Residential Neighborhoods: A Case Study in Delhi, India
Amit Arora, School of Planning and Architecture, New DelhiShow Abstract
Sanjay Gupta, School of Planning and Architecture, New Delhi
Residential areas in metropolitan cities in India, in particular, are increasingly witnessing an overdependence on motorized modes to meet intra- neighborhood needs. Lack of connectivity, absence of pedestrian infrastructure, inaccessible destinations and lack of public transit options force residents to make poor choices in moving between different destinations within the neighborhood. The resultant travel behavior has externalities in form of poor air quality, climate change, excessive paved parking spaces, and encroachment of the carriageway. There is an increasing concern of short distance non-work trips contributing to the greenhouse gas emission at a neighborhood level. Further, the discretionary nature of the choice of mode for these trips (motorized/ non-motorized), makes this subject relevant for research and investigation. Diversity in the type and mix of land uses, and the quality of available infrastructure at a neighborhood level, is the key to understanding of travel behavior in these cities. This paper elaborates the influence of built environment including land use, and available transport infrastructure on individual choice of mode. Measures of built environment namely entropy index, centeredness to different amenities and walkability index, was calculated for all the layouts in the study area. ANOVA analysis shows that some of these measures significantly differ across sectors thereby influences individual choice of mode. Neighborhood level analysis of distribution of uses, infrastructure availability and the corresponding choice of mode, provide pointers on the spatial development patterns to guide policies in determining sustainable travel at a neighborhood level.
Trip and Parking Generation Rates for Different Housing Types: Effects of Compact Development
Guang Tian, University of New OrleansShow Abstract
Keunhyun Park, Utah State University
Reid Ewing, University of Utah
Guidelines for trip and parking generation in the United States come mainly from the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE). However, their trip and parking manuals focus on suburban locations with limited transit and pedestrian access. This study aims to determine how many fewer vehicle trips are generated, and how much less parking demand is generated, by different housing types (single-family attached, single-family detached, and apartment and condo) in different settings, from low density suburban environments to compact, mixed-use urban environments.
Using household travel survey data from 21 diverse regions of the United States, we estimate a multilevel negative binomial model of vehicle trip generation and a multilevel Poisson model of vehicle ownership, vehicle trip generation and vehicle ownership being logically modeled as count variables. The models have the expected signs on their coefficients and have respectable explanatory power. Vehicle trip generation and vehicle ownership (and hence parking demand) decrease with the compactness of neighborhood development, measured with a principal component that depends on activity density, land use diversity, intersection density, transit stop density, and employment accessibility (after controlling for sociodemographic variables). The models capture the phenomena of “trip degeneration” and “car shedding” as development patterns become more compact.
Reducing the number of required parking spaces, and vehicle trips for which mitigation is required, creates the potential for significant savings when developing urban projects. Guidelines are provided for using study results in transportation planning.
Exploring ITE’s Trip Generation Handbook: Assessing Age of Data and Land Use Taxonomy in Vehicle Trip Generation for Transportation Impact Analyses
Kristina Currans, University of ArizonaShow Abstract
Kelly Clifton, Portland State University
The predominant method for estimating transportation impacts of new land-use development is the Institute of Transportation Engineers’ Trip Generation Handbook (2014) and Manual (2012). While several existing and on-going studies focus other relevant issues—e.g., lack of sensitivity to urban context or demographics—many of the new methods developed continue to rely on ITE’s original data as a baseline for adjustment. This manuscript focuses on ITE’s suburban data, assessing two specific issues raised in previous research: (a) does the age of the data significantly relate to changes in vehicle trip generation rates?; and (b) what are the costs and benefits associated with ITE’s extensive land-use taxonomy? This analysis uses ITE’s Handbook vehicle trip generation data to focus on their largest general land-use categories—retail and services.
The results indicate a significant and positive relationship between the age of data and vehicle trip generation rates for eight land-use categories—the only ones with a sample of more than 50 observations. Additionally, the results indicate a significant—but small—improvement in explaining variation of rates between ITE’s taxonomy (64 categories) and an aggregated taxonomy (3 categories). The costs associated with the up-keep of ITE’s extensive retail and service taxonomy—maintaining a sample size of four data points and decommissioning older data—is approximated at $2.1-2.7 million dollars every 10 years, more than 22 times the cost of maintaining the proposed “aggregated” taxonomy. The conclusion includes a discussion of results, limitations, and recommendations for practice.
Impact of Major Road Supply on Individual Travel Time Expenditure: An Exploration Using a 30-Year Variation of Infrastructure and Travel
Ryosuke AbeShow Abstract
Kay Axhausen, Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule Zurich
This study estimates the impact of major road supply on individual travel time expenditure (TTE) using data on 30-year changes in transportation infrastructure and travel behavior. The impact observed shortly after the improvement to the road infrastructure is estimated from a data set that combines records on large-scale household travel surveys in the Tokyo metropolitan area conducted in 1978, 1988, 1998, and 2008. Linear and Tobit models of individual TTE are estimated by following the behavior of birth cohorts over the 30-year period. The models incorporate temporal changes in the metropolitan-level transportation infrastructure, measured as per capita lane-kilometers of major road stock and per capita car-kilometers of urban rail service. The results show that an increase of 0.01 lane-kilometers per capita decreases the TTE for all travel purposes by one minute, and decreases the commuting TTE by 0.6 minutes, after controlling for socioeconomic backgrounds and generations of individuals. This study examines how these effects reflect the effect of the transportation network and, to a lesser degree, their indirect effect through land development activities near major roads.
Land Use Planning Based on Transportation System Constraints Case Study: Central Business District of Isfahan City, Iran
Hadi Karimi, Isfahan University of TechnologyShow Abstract
Bahador Ghadirifaraz, Sharif University of Technology
Nader Shetab Boushehri, Isfahan University of Technology
Generally, the prediction of traffic volumes of urban roads and the assessment of alternatives in the case of policymaking for building new infrastructure is preceded by land-use patterns according to the urban master plan. Given that there are restrictions to expand infrastructure to fulfill future demand, it is substantial to consider the existing transportation system capacity and the amount of development that it can sustain to avoid problems such as traffic congestion and air pollution. In this study, by applying the inverse of the conventional transportation planning method that is different from the land-use transportation interaction modeling, it is feasible to determine land-use limits for each traffic analysis zone (TAZ) as a function of the transportation system capacity. Indeed, this method is applied to examine the trip generation capacity of TAZs regarding values of trip ends for each of them. Comparing the indicated capacity with the current demand for each zone would definitely be a key tool for urban policy makers and planners to define spatial distribution of new activities based on the present capacity of the transportation system in the studied area. For this purpose, after selection of a transportation network of the central business district of Isfahan city as a case of study, the artificial neural networks solution is used to solve the inverse transportation planning problem.
Does Walkability Raise Real Estate Values in Brazil? A Hedonic Model Approach on Rio de Janeiro City
Shanna Trichês Lucchesi, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do SulShow Abstract
Ana Larranaga, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Helena Cybis, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of walkability on the price of residential properties, through a case study in the city of Rio de Janeiro. The analyses were conducted through a hedonic pricing approach. Structural equation models were adopted to construct latent variables of the unobservable characteristics, walkability and security. This methodology allowed analyzing the structure of latent variables, their mutual relationships and their relationship with real estate values. The results show that the residential properties’ prices in the study area increase as walkability increases. Public safety, the roads’ gradient and the presence of pleasant buildings were identified as the most important factors for explaining walkability. Therefore, results suggest that these elements should be influencing factors on the value of residential properties in the area.
The Geography of Household Transportation Expenses in Greater Buenos Aires
Erick Guerra, University of PennsylvaniaShow Abstract
Camilo Caudillo, Centro de Investigación en Geografía y Geomática (CentroGeo), CONACYT
Cynthia Goytia, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
Tatiana Peralta, The World Bank
Camila Rodriguez, The World Bank
This paper presents the results of an analysis of the relationship between household characteristics, where households reside, and how much households spend on transportation in Greater Buenos Aires. The purpose is to develop a better understanding of whether and where coordinated land use and transportation planning can play a role in improving regional housing and transportation affordability. To this end, we develop and present a series of statistical models of how much households spend on transportation on a typical weekday and whether households own a one or more cars. We rely on data from the 2010 household travel survey of approximately 22,000 households in Greater Buenos Aires, matched with data from the Census, a land price database, and a World Bank accessibility indicator. From these analyses we present six key findings: (1) Socioeconomic factors are the strongest predictors of household transportation expenses; (2) geography nevertheless plays and important role; (3) the role of accessibility is complex and perhaps counterintuitive; (4) car ownership is the critical pathway that largely determines household spending; (5) parking availability and thus parking policy are important predictors of car ownership; and (6) job location and proximity, as well as home location, play a role in how much a household spends on transportation.
Urban Travel and Residential Choices Across Generations: Results from a North American Survey
Regina Clewlow, PopulusShow Abstract
Gouri Shankar Mishra, University of California, Davis
Alan Jenn, Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS)
Ken Laberteaux, Toyota Motor North America
Popular media suggests that younger generations prefer to live in urban areas and would rather use Ubers in lieu of owning their own vehicles. However, there is growing evidence that Millennials’ preferences are not dramatically different from previous generations when it comes to housing and transportation choices. This paper presents findings from a comprehensive travel and residential survey deployed in seven major U.S. cities. The survey includes new data on topics often absent in traditional travel surveys, including residential neighborhood and housing preferences, life events, and the adoption of new shared mobility services. We find that although license rates and vehicle ownership are lower among Millennials, their desire to own vehicles is similar to previous generations and their reasons for not owning vehicles are primarily financial. We find that the net migration of younger generations points towards the suburbs. Related questioning about younger generations’ intent to have children and associated housing preferences suggest that urban Millennials and Gen Xers will trade transit-oriented living and walkable neighborhoods for more spacious housing and quality public education. While population growth in urbanized (i.e. urban and suburban) areas is increasing, this research suggests most of the growth will be in the suburbs. As the transportation landscape evolves with the rapid adoption of shared mobility services and soon, automated vehicles, we suggest that planners and policymakers consider how to shape the backdrop against which individual households make their travel choices to foster a more sustainable future.
Minimum Parking Requirements and Residential Property Value: Evidence from Bangkok
Chakaphan Chullabodhi, Chulalongkorn UniversityShow Abstract
Saksith Chalermpong, Chulalongkorn University
Apiwat Ratanawaraha, Chulalongkorn University
An increasing number of cities around the world have eliminated or relaxed minimum parking requirements, citing that they perpetuate automobile dependency by providing excessive parking supply and reducing the cost of driving, as well as reducing housing affordability. Meanwhile, as transit-oriented development is taking shape in Bangkok, an increasing number of condominiums have been built close to transit stations. Yet developers are still required to provide minimum parking spaces, and many of them provide more than what is required or what we call the premium parking.
This study examines the effects of minimum parking requirements on residential property value in Bangkok. We find that condominiums at high-price ranges genenerally provide more parking spaces than required by law, implying that the effects of minimum parking standards are limited for this price group. The results from the hedonic regression model indicate that the effects of providing required parking spaces on residential property value is greater than those of premium parking. This could be interpreted that residential development at lower price ranges are affected more by such requirements. One key policy implication is that urban development and housing policy that aims at affordability should seriously consider revising such parking requirements.
Simulation Evaluation of External Costs in Road Transport Under the Openness of a Gated Community
Ming Cai, Sun Yat-Sen UniversityShow Abstract
Haibo Wang, Hebei University of Technology
Zhanyong Wang, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University
Most residential quarters in Chinese cities are tipically walled off from their surrounding roads for a purpose of making themselves security. Recently, the Chinese government has decided to open the gated residential community thoroughly in order to improve traffic capacity and coordinate major roads in the road network, which will inevitably pose a direct impact such as environment pollution to dwellers in the community. Unfortunately, before this decision, it is less addressed whether this measure works for road traffic and how far the residence can be adversely affected. Hence, this paper proposed a comprehensive method combined by the microscopic traffic simulation, Comprehensive Modal Emisssions Model (CMEM), CALINE4 and vehicle noise emission and attenuation model as well as with a considerasion of social cost, to evaluate the influence of the openness between residential quarters and surrounding roads. The hybrid model was then examined to evaluate an assumptive case of a rectangular gated community under different traffic flows and opened ways. The case study shows that the hybrid method is reasonable to be a consultation method for the road re-planning around an opened community. Appropriate extent of openness and re-planning based on actual situation are is the foundation of healthy development for communities and cities. Based on the case study results, this paper supports some strategical suggestions on improving the enclosed residential areas to make its openness more friendly between traffic capacity and environmental risks.
Connecting Green Transportation and Land Development in China: Can Transportation Impact Assessment Help?
Xiongbin Lin, Peking UniversityShow Abstract
Jiawen Yang, Peking University
Xiaoyan Huang, Texas A&M University
Rapid urbanization and vehicular traffic growth in urban areas demand effective policy tools to regulate the transportation impacts of land (re)development. Transportation Impact Assessment (TIA) is one of the most promising tools implemented by many city governments around the world. Can and how this policy instrument help promote green transportation modes such as transit, walking, and cycling? This paper fills this knowledge gap by studying the policy and practice of TIA in Zhongshan City in China’s developed Pearl River Delta. We analyze the effectiveness of TIA on regulating land development’s traffic impacts and on promoting green transportation. The research reveals that TIA enables local planning authorities to better cope with the traffic externalities stemming from various development projects, and secure necessary resources in advance for green transportation modes. The bargaining process built within the TIA procedure can bring about effective traffic mitigation measures that both benefit city governments and land developers. However, priorities for green transportation modes still need better implementation, with clearly defined performance measures and active roles played by relevant stakeholders.
Balancing Mass Transit Ridership Through Land Use Development
Pongsun Bunditsakulchai, Chulalongkorn UniversityShow Abstract
Achara Limmonthol, Chulalongkorn University
Jittichai Rudjanakanoknad, University of California
Balancing origin-destination (O-D) ridership distribution is crucial for the sustainable transit system and transit oriented development (TOD). However, mass transit ridership pattern is generally affected by land use around the station according to its activity generation. This study compares two theoretical models, i.e. gravity and fluid flow mechanism, and selects the realistic model for applying with balancing mass transit ridership through land use development where each land use type has different production and attraction rate. The objective in balancing the mass transit ridership is to maximize onboard passenger for an entire route. The analysis is simplified by categorizing land use into three major types — residential, business, and commercial zones. The results of land use allocation from the fluid flow mechanism model, a more proper and realistic model, indicate that residential area should be located at the terminal station, business type tends to compactly locate in the middle of mass transit route, and commercial type should be dispersedly located thoroughly along the route. The implication for this analysis would be the guideline for land use and mass transit development simultaneously.
Using Propensity Score Matching Technique to Address Self-Selection in Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) Areas
Arefeh Nasri, University of MarylandShow Abstract
Lei Zhang, University of Maryland, College Park
Babak Baghaei, University of Maryland, College Park
Many studies have investigated the effects of transit-oriented development (TOD) on travel behavior, especially on transit ridership. However, most studies do not explicitly and effectively address the issue of residential self-selection in their analyses. The aim of this paper is to use cross-sectional data and propensity score matching (PSM) technique to quantify the contribution of residential self-selection to the analysis of mode choice in TOD areas across the metropolitan areas of Washington, D.C. and Baltimore, MD. The authors use PSM because it does not make substantive assumptions to the structure of the self-selection problem (e.g., explicit modeling of outcome and treatment). The results of PSM indicate that, even though the self-selection effect is considerable in the analysis of mode choice in TOD areas (about 7.65% in Washington, D.C. and 5.05% in Baltimore), living in TOD still has a significant impact on encouraging transit and other active modes of transportation.
Embracing Change: Estimating Site Trip Generation for Smart Growth Development
Michael Martin, Texas A&M Transportation InstituteShow Abstract
Ed Hard, Texas A&M Transportation Institute
Brian Bochner, Texas A&M Transportation Institute
Transportation impact analyses (TIA) typically use vehicle trip generation rates published by the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) or other locally accepted rates. These originate from suburban sites in single land use areas where almost all trips are made by motor vehicle. These rates have been found to not properly reflect trip generation for smart growth developments.
This paper describes trip generation research completed for California apartment and office smart growth developments that conclusively demonstrates that significant portions of trips to and from the developments are made by modes other than motor vehicles. On average, compared to ITE suburban rates the surveyed sites generated 44 percent fewer peak hour vehicle trips for apartments and 49 percent less for office buildings. Regression equations using two independent variables – development units and nearby intersection density – provide good, direct estimates of AM and PM peak hour vehicle trip generation for such developments. However, to qualify as a smart growth development for trip generation purposes, a specific set of criteria should be met.
The Relationship Between Neighborhood Characteristics and Emergency Health Services Vehicle Demand: A Poisson Hurdle Regression Modeling Approach
Babatope Olajide, Dalhousie UniversityShow Abstract
Muhammad Habib, Dalhousie University
Mikiko Terashima, Dalhousie University
Sara Campbell, Dalhousie University
The main objective of this study is to understand the spatial and temporal variability of emergency health services (EHS) vehicle demand, measured at the 1km by 1km grid-level in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. This study utilizes and compares a Poisson regression and Poisson hurdle regression model that examine the effects of neighborhood characteristics on EHS vehicle demand. It also develops a time-segmented model to investigate the temporal variability of demand. It analyzes the Nova Scotia EHS administrative database for the period of January 2012 to December 2012. A comprehensive set of socio-demographic attributes, land use characteristics and accessibility measures are used to achieve the objectives of this research. The results suggest that emergency vehicle demand was higher in areas where there is higher population density, more heterogeneous land uses, and a larger proportion of the population aged 40 years old and above. The time-segmented model shows emergency demand was higher during AM peak periods for residential areas, PM peak for commercial areas, and AM peak and midday for members of the population over 75 years old. An assessment of the time-segmented model suggests that the generic model is sufficient for predicting how neighborhood characteristics relate to the emergency vehicle demand. The findings of this study will be beneficial for urban planners and health professionals in designing healthy cities and targeting health promotions to reduce the need for emergency services.
Keywords: emergency health services demand, Poisson regression model, land use characteristics
A Toolkit for Successful TOD Planning: Evidence from Five American Cities
Shima Hamidi, University of Texas, ArlingtonShow Abstract
Tahereh Granpayehvaghei, University of Texas, Arlington
Philip Stoker, University of Utah
This paper contributes to discussions about Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) by investigating a diverse range of projects around the United States. It utilizes both qualitative and quantitative data to achieve a better understanding of how TODs can be adapted to their surrounding environment as a reliable alternative to other forms of growth, while still holding their specific characteristics. Incorporating the views of planners, policy-makers and local residents’ perceptions with the built-environmental analysis, the authors provide a toolkit of many options to achieve successful transit-oriented communities in different contexts and with diverse resources.
The authors illustrate that accounting for the needs and expectations of the local community and providing higher density and supportive mixed-use with exceptional design for public places, for instance, benefits the local community and TOD projects in various ways. Ultimately, this paper recommends that supporting TOD projects with land-use policies (e.g. developing at higher density and providing retails that fit the local context), using urban design to create walkable places (e.g. creating livable public spaces and accessible stations), improving the quality of life (e.g. providing affordable housing and addressing crime and homelessness), and planning for different TOD typologies (e.g. urban vs. suburban projects) can most likely create a successful TOD project.
Informing the Transportation Impacts of Affordable Housing with Trip Generation Analysis Using Travel Survey Data
Amanda Howell, Portland State UniversityShow Abstract
Kristina Currans, University of Arizona
Gregory Norton, Portland State University
Kelly Clifton, Portland State University
Planning for affordable housing is challenged by development policies that assess transportation impacts based upon methodologies that often do not differentiate between the travel patterns of residents of market-rate housing and those living in affordable units. Given the public goals of providing affordable housing in areas with good accessibility and transportation options, there is a need to reduce unnecessary burdens and costs imposed by the potential over-estimation of automobile travel and its associated impacts. Thus, the primary objective of this paper is to examine and quantify the influences of urban characteristics, residential housing type, and income on metrics commonly used to assess the transportation impacts of new development. Total home-based trips and home-based vehicle trips are used in trip generation analysis to compute impact fees and transportation impact analyses and thus are the outcomes of interest. Using the 2010-2012 California Household Travel Survey, we regressed these metrics on urban place type, regionally-adjusted income, and housing type, controlling for household size, weekday travel, and home location. The results indicate significant reductions in vehicle trip making with lower incomes and increasing urbanization. These findings support more differentiation of affordable and market-rate housing in the development review process and emphasize the need for development standards to be more sensitive to the characteristics of the future residents and location.
Effect of Land Use and Road Network on Crime
Soumik Nafis Sadeek, Islamic University of TechnologyShow Abstract
Abu Jar Md. Minhuz Uddin Ahmed, Islamic University of Technology (IUT)
Moinul Hossain, Islamic University of Technology (IUT)
Shinya Hanaoka, Tokyo Institute of Technology
Several studies exist that revealed decent association of crimes with distinct land uses and their transportation networks. However, the prevailing attempts are discrete in nature, i.e., lacked a systematic framework, and often focused on data from those land use where crime took place and ignored those land use data where crime did not take place. This study fills these gaps by proposing a new framework combining and synthesizing the notions of existing literature and evaluating it with the data from Uttara, a model town in Dhaka city, Bangladesh. The proposed framework commences by geocoding the crimes on land use GIS map, breaking down the map into different mesh sizes, associating crimes and no crimes with cells of those meshes and finding the optimum mesh size that can best explain the interrelationship among crime, land use and road network using logistic regression and their corresponding receiver operating characteristic curves. Then it applies Support Vector Machine to identify various patterns of crimes in relation to land use and their distances from crime and no crime cells in terms of road network length. Several interesting connections were discovered, such as, built environment like street markets, highways, parks or open spaces are found prone to almost all types of crimes; murder and grievous crimes have poor relationship with land use; etc. which can provide insight into how to reduce crime in cities or how to design built environment which will act as natural deterrent to crime.
Defining Place: A Review of How Place Type Is Measured and Constructed
Kelly Rodgers, Portland State UniversityShow Abstract
Researchers have been parsing which components of the built environment contribute to outcomes of interest and to what degree, particularly the effects on vehicle use and walking. Increasingly, researchers and practitioners recognize that the type of neighborhood may affect individual travel behaviors. Neighborhoods reflect a bundle of various land use and transportation system characteristics. These contexts can be constructed as different neighborhood or place types. But not all place types are constructed with the same use, purpose, or methods. This paper reviews three classifications of place typologies—urban design, data-driven, and area/development-based—to better understand their purpose and appropriate application to research, policy, and practice. Data-driven approaches are either categorical or composite in nature; both appear to be satisfactory approaches to constructing place types that predict travel behavior. Area/development types account for the intensity of neighborhood development and also the neighborhood’s role in the region, which is important considering the critical role of scale in studying and predicting travel behavior. Urban design typologies are more subjective in nature but offer a level of detail about the streetscape that is useful for creating intersections of street type with place type.
Does Urban Sprawl Exacerbate Housing Foreclosure? A Nationwide Study of Built Environmental Characteristics, Transportation Accessibility, and Housing Foreclosure in the United States
Shima Hamidi, University of Texas, ArlingtonShow Abstract
Hamid Hajjafari, University of Texas, Arlington
Mortgage defaults and housing affordability have been controversial issues in the US in recent years. The considerable number of housing foreclosures have damaged the homeowners and hindered the neighborhoods and cities growth as a whole. This leads to a debate of how we should rebuild and reshape our cities. Different research studies have emphasized the importance of sociodemographic factors on the likelihood of foreclosure. However, the literature offers little evidence on how, and to what extent urban sprawl might influence the risk of mortgage default. This study seeks to address this gap in the literature through testing hypotheses about the links between sprawl development and housing foreclosure for metropolitan counties in the U.S. We used the Compactness Indices from Measuring Sprawl 2017 and the foreclosure data from the RealtyTrac Inc. After controlling for confounding variables, this study found that urban sprawl is positively and considerably connected with the higher rate of foreclosure. For each one percent increase in the rate of county compactness, foreclosure level decreases by 1.03 percent. This could be due to the higher level of auto dependency and auto ownership in sprawling counties which uses a substantial portion of households’ budget for driving and automobile maintenance. This could also be due to the high expenses of housing maintenance and utilities for the larger properties in sprawling districts which sequentially upsurges the possibility of mortgage default for inhabitants of these districts.
Diagnosis: A Problem-Oriented Approach to Urban Transportation Planning
Fernanda Duarte Peixoto Soares, University of TorontoShow Abstract
Eric Miller, University of Toronto
Carlos Felipe Loureiro, Universidade Federal do Ceara
Despite the advances in urban transportation planning in the past, plans often seem to accomplish much less than their established objectives. The lack of integration between land use and transportation within planning and decision-making processes is frequently reported as the cause of many problems planners face. Planning practice must incorporate theoretical and methodological contributions to try to ‘reframe the problem’ and hence avoid opposition and conflicts towards decisions. This paper aims to address the existing methodological gap regarding current urban transportation decision support systems in face of the latest contributions to urban transportation planning. It focuses specifically on the early stages of the planning process, seeking to highlight the importance of diagnosis for planning and its relevance to the later definition of objectives. The problem-oriented approach to decision-making supported by a planning process focused on diagnosis discussed here aims to encompass accessibility as the new focus of integrated land use and transportation planning, as well as a communicative approach where stakeholder participation helps in dealing with problem framing issues. Finally, the diagnosis is presented here as a set of systematic activities to support a learning process through stakeholder participation that leads to evidence-based solutions to multidimensional issues.
Microsimulation of Life Stages, Residential Mobility, and Location Choice Processes
Mahmudur Fatmi, University of British ColumbiaShow Abstract
Muhammad Habib, Dalhousie University
This paper presents the microsimulation results of life-stage transitions, residential mobility, and location choice processes within a life-oriented agent-based integrated Transport Land Use and Energy (iTLE) modeling system. Multi-domain interactions and feedbacks are established during the estimation and simulation of the decision processes within the iTLE. The simulation runs at a yearly time-step from 2007-2021 for Halifax, Canada. The simulation results are validated with the 2011 Census information. The results suggest that the iTLE generates reasonably satisfactory population estimates. For example, around 37% of the DAs show a difference in the number of households of less than ±50, and 52% of the DAs show an APE value of less than 30%. The predicted results regarding the spatio-temporal evolution of Halifax suggests an increase of around 14% population in 2021 compared to 2007. Younger population residing closer to the CBD are predicted to be more frequent movers than older population residing farther away from the CBD. Higher proportions of the households are predicted within 25km from the CBD over the years. Proportion of households in these high density neighborhoods are predicted to increase from 68% in 2007 to 71% in 2021. A higher density of single person households are predicted in the urban core in 2021. Density is predicted to be more variable and skewed towards suburban neighborhoods as household composition changes through marriage and child birth.
Locationally Disaggregated Accessibility: Analyzing the Impact of Work Locations on Relative Accessibility Gains and Losses
Michael NiedzielskiShow Abstract
Mark Horner, Florida State University
Accessibility is well studied in the literature capturing multiple locations, personal activity patterns and constraints. However, the contribution of accessibility realized relative to various locations in people’s daily activity patterns is typically hidden focusing on the presentation of overall accessibility results. Knowing how much a places’ accessibility contributes to a person’s overall accessibility is important in light of social exclusion and equity concerns. The general question then becomes: what are the impacts of various locations on one’s overall accessibility? This paper investigates the impact of various spatial anchor locations on accessibility and presents an empirical analysis of “place-based” locationally disaggregated accessibility. The goal is to explore variation by income groups of how home and work locations impact accessibility to non-work opportunities. Our empirical analysis uses 2014 data for the Minneapolis - St. Paul metropolitan area and compares home-based and combined home and work accessibility to explore the impact of work locations on the relative gains and losses in accessibility of different worker income groups while accounting for different land-use-mix types. The results show that commuting provides the greatest benefit to high-income workers and that a majority of workers prefer and seek out through commutes some type of mixed-use location.
DISCLAIMER: All information shared in the TRB Annual Meeting Online Program is subject to change without notice. Changes, if necessary, will be updated in the Online Program and this page is the final authority on schedule information.