This poster session highlights empirical research from around the world on economic development, contributions of transportation investments to regional economies, and interesting insights on job access and social equity.
A Computable General Equilibrium-Based, Four-Step Travel Demand Model
Edward Robson, University of New South WalesShow Abstract
Taha Rashidi, University of New South Wales
Vinayak Dixit, University of New South Wales
S. Travis Waller, University of New South Wales
Existing models in the four-step transport planning framework can simulate travel demands and networks to a high degree of detail, but many rely on fixed economic parameters. As simulators of entire economies, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been increasingly applied to estimate the magnitude and distribution of economic impacts from transport improvements both spatially and through markets, including GDP and welfare. Some CGE models are linked with transport network models, but none incorporate full networks or generate a complete set of travel demands, both of which are necessary in the four-step framework. This paper presents an integrated CGE and transport model that generates household trips and simulates a full road network for different time periods, such that the transport submodel can be calibrated and run as a conventional transport model. The model provides a tool for the rapid strategic assessment of transport projects and policies when economic responses cannot be assumed to remain static. In the model, the CGE submodel simulates the behaviour of households and firms interacting in markets, where their behaviour takes trip costs into account. The model then generates trips as a derived demand from agent activities and assigns them to the road network according to user equilibrium, before feeding back trip costs to the CGE submodel. The model is then tested by simulating the WestConnex motorway project under construction in Sydney, with results showing significant increases in welfare for regions close to the improvements. Further development of the model is required to incorporate land-use, mode choice and the generation of freight trips.
Evaluating the Causal Economic Impacts of Transport Investments: Evidence from the Madrid–Barcelona High-Speed Rail Corridor
Jose Carbo, Imperial College LondonShow Abstract
Daniel Graham, Imperial College London
Anupriya Anupriya, Imperial College London
Daniel Casas, Lazard Financial Services
Patricia Melo, University of Lisbon
This paper quantifies the causal economic impact of high-speed rail (HSR) on the Spanish regional economy. Spain has the largest HSR network in Europe and the second largest in the world, but its impact remains understudied. Using difference-in-differences estimation, we find that the introduction of HSR increased the number of firms by 3.3\% in the six provinces with stops lying on the HSR line, while labour productivity, measured by GVA per employee, increased by 1.08\%. We complement our DID results with a synthetic control analysis of the economic impact of HSR on Lleida and Tarragona. We argue that these provinces received an HSR station mainly due to their incidental location on route between Barcelona and Madrid, and thus their assignment to HSR is largely exogenous to their baseline economic performance. We find that both the number of firms and GVA per employee in Lleida and Tarragona are substantially higher than in their synthetic counterparts due to the introduction of HSR.
A Proposed Framework for Evaluating Economic Development Impacts of Active Transportation Street Improvements
Jenny Liu, Portland State UniversityShow Abstract
Wei Shi, Portland State University
Jamaal Green, Portland State University
In cities across the country, many advocates are arguing for more robust bicycle infrastructure, and planners often make the claim that new active transportation infrastructure can be perceived as a type of economic development policy as well as a transportation one. It is often inferred that additional or upgraded bicycle infrastructure can contribute to volumes of consumers that arrive via an active transportation mode, and, ultimately, result in greater revenue and employment growth for neighboring business establishments. While there is suggestive evidence for this in the literature, past research has largely been descriptive, or exploratory, in nature as opposed to experimental. This paper addresses this technical gap by proposing a research framework to estimate business and economic impacts of new cycling infrastructure (or bicycle street improvements). After reviewing the state of the literature, we present the key steps of the research framework: selecting and validating appropriate treatment and control corridors; selecting proper datasets to measure economic development impacts; and performing both descriptive trend analyses and causal inference using difference-in-difference and interrupted time series econometric models. Then, demonstrative examples of the proposed framework are offered along with a concluding discussion of the limitations and future research directions. We contend that the straightforward nature of this research design will assist practitioners in establishing understandable and defensible economic outcomes for proposed active transportation infrastructure investment projects. Keywords: economic development, infrastructure investment, active transportation, bicycle, street improvements
Competition Game Between High Speed Rail and Air Transport: A Case Study of Beijing-Shanghai Corridor, China
Xiushan Jiang, Beijing Jiaotong UniversityShow Abstract
Yuanxun Li, Beijing Jiaotong University
Yingyi Xie, Transport Planning and Research Institute, China Railway Design Corporation
Liying Song, Beijing Jiaotong University
High speed rail (HSR) provides superior service with speed and stability and it competes fiercely with air transport over medium-distance journeys. In order to deeply analyze competition between two transportation modes, this paper establishes a two-stage game model of competition between HSR and air transport, with enterprise profits and social welfare as objective functions respectively. The Beijing-Shanghai Corridor is selected as an empirical case study. The equilibrium results under the objective of maximizing enterprise profits show that the profits of HSR and air increase by 4.9% and 62.5%. Furthermore, under the objective of maximizing social welfare, the HSR and air transport get losses, the social welfare of HSR and air increase as well only with the support of government policies. In particular, the social welfare of HSR increases by 74.9%. This indicates that the HSR has more social welfare than the air transport, and the air transport has more enterprise profits than the HSR.
Appraisal of the Effects on the Regional Economy by Investments in Transportation Projects
Maria Sartzetaki, Democritus University of ThraceShow Abstract
DIMITRIOU Dimitrios, Democritus University of Thrace
The complexity of decision-making for the implementation of large transportation infrastructures, mainly, caused to the variety of stakeholders with different expectations and prospects. Additionally, the business and financial uncertainties increase the risks of the project, resulting additional cost, lack of estimations in revenues and time delay. Therefore, the review of the socioeconomic impact into the project life-time is very critical to support decision makers. This paper deals with the evaluation of the transportation projects socioeconomic effects according to the budget and business features of the project. Key objective is to define and quantify the overall contribution of a transport infrastructure project to an economic system during its lifecycle. Based on System of System concept, a series of KPIs introduced to review the performance of the project development in a given economic system. The numerical application deals with the assessment of a cross-border transportation project, connecting the ports of Burgas (Bulgaria) and Alexandroupolis (Greece), stimulating new business opportunities in one of the lower income regions in Europe, by establishing a new freight transportation corridor from Black Sea to Southeast Mediterranean
Impacts of Rural Roads’ Improvement on Household Income and Mobility Through Market Accessibility Enhancement in Rural Areas of Cambodia
Shin Takada, University of TokyoShow Abstract
Hironori Kato, University of Tokyo
Rika Idei, University of Tokyo
Several low-income countries’ rural areas face severe poverty typically caused by local residents’ insufficient accessibility to basic facilities, such as markets, schools, and health facilities. Improvement in rural roads is highly expected to contribute to poverty reduction. This study investigated the potential impacts of rural road improvement projects implemented from 2011 to 2016 in Cambodian rural areas on poverty reduction through accessibility enhancement. This study set up two hypotheses: (1) cost savings of trips between residences and local markets owing to road improvements led to a growth in residents’ income; and (2) road improvement led to an increase in the frequency of the habitants’ access to local markets. These are tested using econometric analyses and empirical data, which were collected through a questionnaire survey conducted in three project areas in 2016. The data include responses from 400 local residents to questions concerning their social attributes, livelihoods, travel modes, and time/cost of travel to the basic facilities. Regression analyses incorporating a difference-in-differences design and an instrumental variables method found that road improvement increased the frequency of the habitants’ access to local markets, but travel cost savings owing to road improvement did not contribute to the residents’ income growth. One potential reason for the insignificant income impacts was discussed, given the small marginal effect of road improvement and weak change in locations for selling the agricultural product.
Left Behind in an Auto-Dominated Landscape: The Role of Cars in Economic Mobility, 1968–2013
Michael Smart, Rutgers, The State University of New JerseyShow Abstract
Nicholas Klein, Cornell University
Does access to an automobile play a more important role in economic upward mobility today than in the past? Jobs and people—including many low-income families—have moved to the suburbs, leading to an increased reliance on cars to get to and from work. Low-income families without access to automobiles may be increasingly “left behind” in the contemporary economic geography of the United States. As a result, job seekers in many US neighborhoods will find it difficult to find and keep a job without access to a reliable car. We test whether the relationship between car ownership, public transportation, and employment outcomes has become stronger over time using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) from 1968 through 2015. We find that having a car in one panel wave is a strong predictor of future employment and higher earnings one year later. Transportation’s role in securing employment has grown rapidly in recent years, though its association with earnings once employed appears to have peaked in the 1980s or 90s. Furthermore, transportation appears to play a considerably stronger and growing role in the economic outcomes of women and recipients of government assistance.
Coordination of City Economy and Port Throughput: A Panel Data Approach
Dong Zhang, Dalian University of TechnologyShow Abstract
Longze Cong, Dalian University of Technology
Mingli Wang, Dalian University of Technology
Hongfeng Xu, Dalian University of Technology
Li Li, Chang'an University
Coordinating development of city and port development benefits both. Recently some Chinese ports are suffering from the capacity surplus in the context of the global recession. To find out whether the problem could be relieved by adjusting the city economic development strategy, the present study examined the relationship between city economic indicators and the port throughput. With panel data for 18 port-city pairs in China over 17 years, the bi-directional causality between the economic development and port production was first confirmed with the second generation panel data analysis methods. Panel data regression models were further estimated to examine the strength of economic factors on the port throughput. It turned out that GDP imposed a positive impact on port throughput while the amount of total retail sales of consumer goods had a negative one. Regarding the economic structure indicators, the port throughput increases synchronously with the added value of the secondary industry but negatively with that of the primary and the tertiary sectors. The underlying reasons were discussed, and several policy suggestions to respond to the research question were proposed.
Cook County Frieght Plan: Establishing the County's Unique Role in Freight Transportation Planning
Alexander Beata, Cook CountyShow Abstract
Maria Choca Urban, Cook County
Large urban counties play a unique role in shaping transportation policies that strengthen regional economies and benefit community quality of life. With a growing emphasis on freight policy at the national level, freight-related improvements are an attractive opportunity for local agencies to make meaningful investments and build their economies. Cook County, Illinois, has undertaken a strategic program to leverage its significant freight resources to drive economic growth and promote local quality of life. As a part of this program, the County has completed an extensive study of its freight transportation system and economic development activities, its role as a freight leader at the national and local scale and opportunities to coordinate resources across the multiple public and private entities involved in the freight transportation sector. This innovative planning approach merges traditional transportation planning methods with an economic development and community focused lens. The technical research and planning process resulted in a comprehensive but strategic framework for the County to implement targeted improvements that modernize its existing freight assets and maximize efficiencies. The result of this planning approach is the County’s first Freight Plan, a strategic framework to guide Cook County’s future investments for greatest impact. This paper articulates the background, process and expected long term economic impacts of this investment strategy.
Application of Region Specific Depreciation Formulas in Highway Capital Stocks: Evidence from New York and New Jersey
ONUR KALAN, New York UniversityShow Abstract
Highways are significant instruments for transportation in United States, and the common opinion is that increasing highway networks leads to major changes in economic development. In general, the quantification of the highways is performed by capital stock approach in monetary terms. In capital theory, the increase of the stock value can be calculated by gross investment values. On the contrary, deduction is performed with the assumption of different depreciation patterns which their representations of the real deduction in the assets have been questioned. This paper provides an empirical evaluation that focuses on the representability of new depreciation patterns which are derived from the deterioration functions of New Jersey State bridge decks. This study measures the Gross County Product (GCP) change between 1999 and 2013 in 18 counties of NY/NJ regional area in an econometric model with geometric depreciation pattern and proposed 22 new depreciation patterns. The results show that an increase in highway capital stock has a significant and positive impact on economic growth in the region. The models are used in the forecast of year 2016 GCP values of each county. Although some of the counties in the models do not reflect significant improvement in the new depreciation models, some of the counties show an observable decrease in the estimation errors. It is indicated that in the counties where the models give positive improvements, the new depreciation patterns can be used as a tool to estimate more precise GCP values for policy makers.