Electric Vehicles, Air Pollution, and the Motorcycle City: Stated-Preference Survey of Consumers’ Willingness to Adopt Electric Motorcycles in Solo, Indonesia
Erick Guerra, University of Pennsylvania
This paper presents the results of a choice experiment to evaluate the extent to which electric motorcycles are a potential replacement for gasoline-powered motorcycles in Solo, Indonesia. Survey respondents faced five choice scenarios where they selected between a conventional motorcycle, an electric motorcycle, and no motorcycle based on price, speed, range, and charge time. Approximately 1,200 completed all five choice scenarios and fully responded to socioeconomic and preference questions. As in much of Southeast Asia, motorcycles dominate the transportation system and provide inexpensive, relatively safe, and convenient point-to-point travel. However, motorcycles also produce substantial, harmful local emissions. To estimate the probability of selecting different motorcycle types, the survey data are fit with a mixed logit model with random coefficients. This specification allows correlation across choices over time, flexible substitution across the choice alternatives, and variation in consumer preferences. The results of the survey and analysis indicate that there is almost certainly a market for electric motorcycles but their price and performance will have to be competitive with low-cost, gas-powered ones. Speed, range, charge time, and price all mattered substantially with respondents willing to pay a 25% premium for motorcycles with 10 km longer range or 10 km/h faster speed. Charge time was particularly important, suggesting that improvements in battery charging technology and charging infrastructure could have a substantial impact on consumers’ willingness to adopt electric motorcycles. Younger non-smoking respondents with concerns about the environment and previous exposure to e-bikes were most likely to choose electric motorcycles.
How May Air Pollution Affect Bike Sharing Choice? A Mode Choice Behavior Study in a Developing Country With Policy Implications
Weibo Li, University College London
Maria Kamargianni, University College London
Developing countries are facing increasing challenges to make urban mobility sustainable and more specifically to tackle the continuously growing air pollution and congestion caused by rapid increase in car ownership. As part of a broad strategy to achieve sustainable urban mobility, bike-sharing service can help reduce car use, especially in city centers. There is currently a lack of knowledge in developing countries about the factors affecting bike-sharing choice, hindering policy making to effectively improve bike-sharing services. This research investigates the factors affecting bike-sharing choice in China and brings in air pollution impact in mode choice behavior studies. A multinomial logit model and two mixed multinomial logit models are developed to analyze mode choice behavior based on the stated preference data collected in the case study city, Taiyuan, which currently operates the most demanded bike-sharing scheme in China. The results confirm the significant impact of air pollution on mode choice behavior and include other findings such as the negative willingness to pay for transport services. A number of bike-sharing policy pathways are simulated to estimate the modal splits. It is revealed that air quality improvement on its own has limited effect in promoting bike-sharing usage and the policy measures focusing only on bike-sharing attributes (e.g. price and walking distance reduction) can hardly take private cars off the road; instead a great number of bus users will be attracted to an improved bike-sharing service.
Defining a Primary Market for Bikesharing Programs: Study of Habits and Usage Intentions in Leon, Mexico
Karla Gamez-Perez, Tecnologico de Monterrey - Campus Leon
Pilar Arroyo-López, EGADE Business School, Tecnologico de Monterrey
Christopher Cherry, University of Tennessee, Knoxville
Bikeshare has emerged as an influential new technology to improve non-motorized transportation in cities across the globe. Latin American countries have lagged in implementation of bikeshare systems. As such, there is a lack of studies that focus on bikeshare potential in Latin America. This study contributes to fill this gap by examining the potential demand of a proposed bikeshare system in the city of Leon, located in the central part of Mexico. We use the data of a stratified survey of 519 respondents to estimate a binary logit model on the stated intention to use the bikeshare system and thus to assess the factors that influence the potential interest in this mode of transportation. Some aspects of the results are consistent with other studies: potential bikeshare users must have safe infrastructure, they will use bikeshare for regular trips from home to work, and bikeshare is competitive for short duration trips. A few findings contrast with other studies: potential bikeshare users tend to be lower income, are not already cyclists, and some have very long transit commutes.
Exploring Dispatcher's Preference in Electric Tricycle and Related Policies in China
Miner Zhong, Southeast University
Yong Zhang, Southeast University
Xuefeng Li, Southeast University
Lei Shi, Southeast University
Fangmin Zuo, Southeast University
Yichang Liu, Southeast University
Recently, electric tricycles are widely used in logistics delivery process, especially in China. This paper explore the demand and problems related to electric tricycle’s application as dispatching apparatus. A total of 222 effective questionnaires are collected in two provinces, with answers from dispatchers on electric tricycles’ usage, satisfaction, preference and policies. Results of statistical analysis and binary logit models show that: 1) the driving speed is greatly influenced by battery life, daily mileage and the maximum width of tricycles; 2) the load capacity is mainly related to cargo volume, and its benefits on speeding up delivery process as well as cutting down the cost; 3) the single-charge mileage is mostly affected by limitation on the least delivering parcels, and the maximum height of tricycles; 4) other satisfaction indicators include gender, driving qualification, affordability and intelligent degree of electric tricycles. The results lay foundations for standardization and policy-making of logistics electric tricycles, as well as better understandings in tricycle’s design and traffic behavior.