Evaluation Framework and Data Sets for Climate Analyses: Supporting Adaptation of the German Inland Transport System
Stephanie Haensel, Deutscher WetterdienstShow Abstract
Christoph Brendel, Deutscher Wetterdienst
Sabrina Wehring, Deutscher Wetterdienst
Martin Klose, Federal Highway Research Institute (BASt)
Simona Höpp, Deutscher Wetterdienst
Stefan Krähenmann, Deutscher Wetterdienst
Monika Rauthe, Deutscher Wetterdienst
Carina Herrmann, German Federal Railway Authority (EBA)
Andreas Walter, Deutscher Wetterdienst
Climate change and extreme weather events are an increasing challenge for society and economy including the transport sector. A sustainable and resilient transport system therefore requires information on the temporal and spatial pattern of risks induced by climate change and the assessment of resulting vulnerabilities. These tasks are addressed by the “Network of Experts” initiated in 2016 by the German Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI). This research network aims at integrating knowledge and abilities available within the departmental research institutes in an intermodal perspective. Here, work within the research topic „Adapting transport and infrastructure to climate change and extreme weather events“ is presented. Climatological datasets and methodological approaches for the climate analysis are introduced, as a common database and a standardized analysis framework support the intended intermodal impact analyses and the development of adaptation options. Exemplarily, first results on the projected increases of temperature and heavy precipitation are presented in order to illustrate the need for developing climate change adaptation measures for the German inland transport system.
Prioritization of Climate Change Adaptation Interventions in a Road Network Combining Spatial Socioeconomic Data, Network Criticality Analysis, and Flood Risk Assessments
Xavier Espinet, The World BankShow Abstract
Julie Rozenberg, The World Bank
Climate change puts at risk all current and future transport projects. Investing proactively in climate adaptation of transport infrastructure is paramount to providing resilience and sustainable transport systems that may promote social and economic growth. Despite the importance of such investments, financial resources of many road administrations are constrained, creating an urgent need to efficiently allocate these resources to capture the highest social, environmental and economic benefits. This paper aims to tackle this issue by presenting a methodology to prioritize climate change adaptation interventions based on a set of economic, social and risk reduction criteria. This method uses a network-wide approach to the road system in order to capture co-benefits, redundancies, and costs of disruption of road segments due to flood events. All underlying data in each of the criteria is part of a geospatial database that includes the location of agriculture, fishery production areas, high poverty and flood maps. The methodology is applied to two provinces in rural Mozambique, Zambezia and Nampula. Results suggest that most roads in coastal districts are identified as top priority for climate change adaptation interventions when combining criteria for agriculture, fisheries, poverty, network criticality and hazard risk.
Trannsportation Policy Making in Beijing and Shanghai: Contributors, Obstacles, and Process
Jungwoo Chun, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)Show Abstract
Joanna Moody, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
Jinhua Zhao, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
With continued motorization and urbanization in Chinese cities, there is a growing demand for innovative transportation policies to address the challenges of congestion, local air pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions. Using Beijing and Shanghai as case studies, this paper draws on in-depth interviews with municipal government officials and non-governmental experts to document the ways in which transportation policy is currently implemented at the city-level in China. Using recursive and iterative qualitative data analysis techniques, this study (1) further justifies existing factors that contribute to transportation policy decisions, (2) identifies other factors that contribute to or obstruct effective transportation policy implementation in the two cities. The results indicate policy learning, public opinion, and data informatization emerge as key contributors to policy implementation; while public complaint, unilateral decision-making, inadequate coordination among relevant departments, and failure to commit to adaptive policy implementation practice pose significant challenges to adopting timely and appropriate transportation policies. This study finds that in Beijing, and even more so in Shanghai, public opinion is both a contributor and an obstacle to the introduction of new transportation policies. The motivation for policy comes partly from public opinion, but it is also public complaint that sometimes stops policy implementation. We conclude by describing the transportation policymaking process in Beijing and Shanghai and identifying where contributors and obstacles fit within this process.
Economics of Making Roads Resilient to Climate Change: Use of Discounted Cash Flow and Real Options Analysis
Nivedya M K, Worcester Polytechnic InstituteShow Abstract
Rajib Mallick, Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Jennifer M Jacobs, University of New Hampshire
Jo Sias, University of New Hampshire
An increase in the number of extreme weather events and gradual shifts in climate parameters due to a changing climate pose a serious threat to the nation’s roadway infrastructure. A systematic approach is needed to define risks and assess consequences of climate change, consider the uncertainties, rank priorities, and initiate an adaptation strategy in a cost effective manner. The objective of this study is to develop a framework that could be used to assess the impact of climate change on pavements in a rational way using either the Net Present Value (NPV) or the Real Option (RO) approach, to compare several options and to make the most prudent decision regarding selecting an option, and the time of adopting that specific option. The NPV approach will generally go against investment for cases with high uncertainty, even if they are very promising, and does not take into account the flexibility or decisions that could be implemented on the basis of changing conditions. In contrast, the RO method offers a flexible deferment option when the uncertainties regarding outcomes are resolved to a certain extent. A framework with a step-by-step method for evaluating the feasibility of building roads that are resilient to a changing climate is presented, along with an example. The worked out example shows that there could be considerable value in using RO analysis, and this value can be leveraged to develop better economic policies for building roads that are resilient to a changing climate.
Recent and Future Outlooks for Nuisance Flooding Impacts on Roadways on the U.S. East Coast
Jennifer M Jacobs, University of New HampshireShow Abstract
Lia Cattaneo, Center for American Progress
William Sweet, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Theodore Mansfield, RSG
Tidal floods (i.e., “nuisance” flooding) are occurring more often during seasonal high tides and/or minor wind events, and the frequency is expected to increase dramatically in the coming decades. During these flood events, coastal communities’ roads are often impassable or difficult to pass, thus impacting routine transport needs. This study identifies vulnerable roads and quantifies the risk from nuisance flooding in the Eastern United States by combining public road information from the Federal Highway Administration’s Highway Performance Monitoring System with flood frequency maps, tidal gauge historic observations, and future projections of annual minor tidal flood frequencies and durations. The results indicate that tidal nuisance flooding across the East Coast threatens 7,508 miles (12,083 km) of roadways including over 400 miles (644 km) of interstate roadways. From 1996-2005 to 2006-2015, there was a 90% average increase in nuisance floods. With sea level rise, nuisance flood frequency is projected to grow at all locations assessed. The total induced vehicle-hours of delay due to nuisance flooding currently exceed 100 million hours annually. Nearly 160 million vehicle-hours of delay across the East Coast by 2020 (85% increase from 2010); 1.2 billion vehicle-hours by 2060 (126% increase from 2010); and 3.4 billion vehicle-hours by 2100 (392% increase from 2010) are projected under an Intermediate Low sea level rise scenario. By 2056-2065, nuisance flooding could occur almost daily at sites in Connecticut, New Jersey, Maryland, the District of Columbia, North Carolina, and Florida under an Intermediate sea level rise scenario.
How Public Organizations Tackle Weather Risks: A Study of U.S. Transit Agencies
Qing Miao, Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT)Show Abstract
Eric Welch, Arizona State University
Fengxiu Zhang, Arizona State University
P. Sriraj, University of Illinois, Chicago
Extreme weather events have a highly disruptive impact on public transit systems and challenge the capacity of transit agencies to effectively respond to them. In this paper, we draw upon a recent nationwide survey of major public transit agencies across the United States to understand the factors that influence their scope of adjustment for adapting to anticipated extreme weather risks. We find that a transit agency would undertake more adaptation measures to tackle weather risks when its public officials perceive greater risks, stronger adaptive capacity, or they have experienced more severe extreme weather events recently. We also show that local institutional environment, in particular, political ideology, could significantly affect the scope of transit adaptation activities. Transit agencies that operate in more liberal jurisdictions tend to engage in more adaptation measures, while the ideology effect at the state level depends on the level of perceived influence from state governments.
Peak Car: A Generational Approach
Veronique Van Acker, LISERShow Abstract
In ‘peak car’ literature, lower shares of car use among young adults are often explained by claiming that Generation Y has a different attitude towards mobility, being more pro-environment and less car oriented. However, a generational comparison of mobility attitudes in Flanders, Belgium, proved this is only partly true. Generation Y is indeed the least car-oriented, but also the least pro-environment compared to older generations. Moreover, Generation Y might indeed be less addicted to their cars but this is only in comparison with the oldest generation of Boomers and not compared to Generation X with whom differences are negligible. Moreover, logistic regressions pointed out that attitudes are important determinants of modal choices for active leisure activities. However, this does not only apply to Generation Y but also to the older generations. These findings indicate that we cannot attribute such sustainable mobility attitudes to Generation Y as a unique feature of this generation.
Dealing with the Gap Between Type Approval and In-Use Light-Duty Vehicles Fuel Consumption and CO2 Emissions: Present Situation and Future Perspective
Jelica Pavlovic, European Commission, Joint Research CentreShow Abstract
Konstantinos Anagnostopoulos, National Technical University of Athens (NTUA)
Michael Clairotte, European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Vincenzo Arcidiacono, European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Georgios Fontaras, European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Ignacio Iker Prado Rujas, European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Victor Valverde Morales, European Commission, Joint Research Centre
Biagio Ciuffo, European Commission, Joint Research Centre
There is increasing evidence suggesting that real world fuel consumption and CO2 improvements in the last decade have been much less than those measured during type approval tests. Scientific studies have found that the offset between officially reported values and real-world vehicle CO2 emissions in Europe has constantly increased over the last years. The difference between officially reported and actual CO2 emissions of vehicles has three main implications: a) it undermines the effectiveness of CO2 Regulations in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Europe, b) it distorts competition between vehicle manufacturers, c) it undermines innovation.
As a fundamental step to deal with this issue the European Commission has already replaced the old and outdated test procedure used so far in the emission type-approval of vehicles with Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP). Being a lab-based test-procedure, the WLTP, by its nature, can only cover part of the CO2 gap. There is therefore increasing pressure to integrate the current type-approval system with additional measures based on real-world measurements. One of the options under discussion is to use the CO 2 emissions measured during the Real-Driving Emission test.
Objective of the present paper is to assess the validity of this proposal and to propose other possible ways to deal with the CO2 /fuel consumption gap. In particular, the paper presents experimental evidence on the variability of the CO 2/fuel consumption of a vehicle, putting into question the idea that a single central estimate of these quantities may be sufficient.
Factor Decomposition Analysis of Urban Passenger Transport CO2 Emissions: An Empirical Research of Global Cities During 1960–2001
Ye Li, Tongji UniversityShow Abstract
Yuao Wei, Tongji University
Lei Bao, Tongji University
Wenxiang Li, Tongji University
Urban transport sector has become one of the major contributors to global CO2 emissions. This paper aims to investigate the driving forces of change in CO2 emissions from different cities’ passenger transport sectors, which is helpful to formulating more effective carbon-reduction policies and strategies. First, the urban transport CO2 emissions over the period 1960-2001 from 46 cities are calculated. Then the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method is used to decompose the CO2 emissions change from urban passenger transport sector into five driving factors: urbanization, motorization, mode structure, energy intensity, energy mix. The results of mega cities (London, Paris, New York and Tokyo) are compared with that of other cities. Further analysis of the decomposition result is given to mega cities in order to find the main driving factors for urban passenger transport CO2 emissions. Results indicate that: (1) Urban passenger transport CO2 emissions of both mega cities and other cities experienced a decelerated growth and then a reduction over the period 1960-2001, and the emission reduction trend of mega cities was relatively slow. (2) Mode structure effect played a more important role in mega cities’ urban passenger CO 2 emissions than that of other cities. From 1995 to 2001, the main inhibitory factors of CO2emissions growth were motorization effect and mode structure effect. (3) Energy intensity effect was the main inhibitory factors of urban passenger CO2 emissions growth for all mega cities over the period 1980-1990. From 1970 to 1990, motorization effect and mode structure effect promoted CO2 emissions growth for all mega cities.
Impacts of Sea-Level Rise on Nonmotorized Transportation
Rezvan Mohammadiziazi, University of DelawareShow Abstract
Ardeshir Faghri, University of Delaware
Mingxin Li, University of Delaware
There are certain evidences that greenhouse gas emissions resulted from human activities have caused climate change. The intergovernmental panel for climate change (IPCC) has certified 0.2°C of increase in mean temperature per decade. Non-motorized transportation is considered as one of the major mitigation strategies to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions and make urbanized communities sustainable. This proves the importance of identifying facilities such as trails that are more vulnerable to the effects of sea level rise to start adaptations as early as possible. This paper investigates the effect of sea level rise on trails and bike routes in the State of Delaware. Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to estimate the distance of inundation, and the maximum depth of water on affected facilities. These variables were applied to assess the vulnerability of the affected trails and bike routes. The result of the vulnerability assessment was reported as the level of service of facilities under different sea level rise projections. Results show that there is a significant gap between the number of facilities that will be damaged if sea level rises 6 feet rather than 2 feet. As sea level rise projection gets higher, the number of facilities with lower level of service increase.
Using Life-Cycle Cost Analyses (LCCAs) to Evaluate Climate Change Adaptation Measures for Transportation Projects
Beth Rodehorst, ICFShow Abstract
Will Cooper, ICF
David Ryder, ICF
Justin Lennon, WSP
Chris Dorney, WSP
Robert Kafalenos, Federal Highway Administration (FHWA)
Robert Hyman, Federal Highway Administration (FHWA)
Life cycle cost analyses (LCCAs) are an important tool for transportation design practitioners in determining how an asset design should be modified to make it more resilient to climate change. LCCAs can help put total costs and benefits into perspective when considering multiple design options or even whether to adapt at all. Although there are well-established methods for conducting LCCAs, standard approaches need modification to consider climate change. This paper discusses development of climate stressor-damage relationship curves, combined with use of a Monte Carlo analysis, Area Under the Curve calculation, development of future scenarios, or a hybrid approach to complete an LCCA.
Then, this paper presents an application of a hybrid approach that used both a Monte Carlo analysis and a scenarios approach to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of several alternative designs for a culvert on US 34 in Colorado. Climate projections for Northern Colorado project a drier climate in the future, yielding less precipitation and an increased incidence of wildfire. These impacts conjointly will result in additional sediment discharges. Projecting climate change and the incidence of wildfire involves large uncertainties, and accounting for the confounding effects presents an analytical challenge when evaluating adaptation alternatives. This methodology can be used to support decision making regarding climate change adaptation alternatives under compounded uncertainty. In addition, this methodology can be used to determine which adaptation design alternative is the most consistently resilient across the range of climate change and disaster event scenarios.
Data-Driven and Hurricane-Focused Metrics for Combined Transportation and Power Networks Resilience
Davide Pinzan, Università degli studi di PadovaShow Abstract
Ayberk Kocatepe, Connetics Transportation Group
Mostafa Gilanifar, Florida State University
Mehmet Ulak, Florida State University
Eren Ozguven, Florida A&M University
Reza Arghandeh, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences
Hurricane Hermine was the first hurricane to make
landfall in Florida since Hurricane Wilma in
Modeling the Impacts of Climatic Extremes on Interregional Freight-Transportation System
Arash Beheshtian, Cornell UniversityShow Abstract
Kieran P. Donaghy, Cornell University
Raymond Geddes, Cornell University
The wellbeing of a nation is conditioned on an optimal distribution of commodity-flow. The freight-transportation system, however, is exposed to, and highly vulnerable to, climatic hazards. This becomes more problematic in the long-term when the changing climate is projected to continue or worsen. Studying the long-term climate vulnerability of interregional commodity shipment is a challenging task given complexities inherent ina) the dynamic formulation of factors such as location, production, the interaction of regional economies, and commodity distribution patterns, andb) the stochastic arrival and intensity of natural hazards.
This article studies the impact of projected climatic extremes in the State of New York on long-term interregional commodity-flow. It investigates the nature of and extent to which vulnerabilities in transportation infrastructure may cause sudden and profound changes in the routing assignment and cost of commodity-flows. We approximate commodity-flow assignment through a dynamic, long-term estimation of an interregional commodity-flow model reflecting the choices of households, market places, and firm locations and strategies. In the research here reported, we also utilized explicit treatment of trade in intermediate goods, the so-called new economic geography providing the behavioral foundation for production and interindustry and interregional trade, and an endogenous determination of capital investment and employment.
The results show how and to what extent the (partial-)connectedness of New York State’s freight-transportation network in time of disaster a ) causes an unmet demand for commodities across the nation’s regional economies and b) increases the shipment cost and effective-delivered price of commodity-flows.
LOS Versus VMT in California’s Environmental Review: A Los Angeles Case Study
Jamey Volker, University of California, DavisShow Abstract
Amy Lee, University of California, Davis
Dillon Fitch, University of California, Davis
Joe Kaylor, University of California, Davis
“Level of service” and the California Environmental Quality Act have had an uncomfortable, yet durable, marriage for nearly 50 years, persisting despite the fact that LOS measures driver comfort and convenience, not environmental impacts, and has contributed to California’s suburban sprawl. SB 743 and the Governor's Office of Planning and Research are on the verge of replacing LOS with a truer metric of transportation-related environmental impacts: “vehicle miles traveled.” But old habits die hard, and LOS and its impacts may not be so easily reversed. In this paper, we flesh out the history and impacts of using LOS in CEQA review, and find that LOS was imported into CEQA because it was familiar, and likely a means to a roadwork funding end. We also present a case study of how California’s proposed VMT analysis framework could affect environmental review of – and incentives for – land use development projects in the City of Los Angeles, using draft environmental impact reports from the past 11 years. We find evidence that the proposed VMT metric and screening thresholds would streamline some larger housing projects. But, at least in LA, streamlining for mixed-use residential projects that contain office components would likely be limited.
Are Coastal Areas Equally Vulnerable to Sea-Level Rise? Exploring the Spatial Patterns of Transportation Vulnerability in Tampa Bay Region
Suwan Shen, University of HawaiiShow Abstract
Zhong-Ren Peng, Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Sea level rise, as one of the most wide-spread and important climate change factors, has become a pressing threat to transportation infrastructure, especially in coastal region. Despite many studies conducted to evaluate the potential impacts of sea level rise or coastal flooding on transportation infrastructures, there are three limitations in existing literature related to transportation vulnerability to sea level rise. First, few studies investigate the spatial patterns of transportation vulnerability at the local level. Second, majority of the measures fail to capture the potential changes in trip origins and destinations due to the permanent inundation by sea level rise. Third, the influencing factors associated with such vulnerability have seldom been explored. To address the aforementioned three gaps, the purpose of this study is to investigate the spatial distribution of transportation vulnerability to sea level rise and explore the key factors associated with such vulnerability. Using Tampa Bay region as a case study, transportation vulnerability to sea level rise at the traffic analysis zone (TAZ) level are calculated and mapped using a proposed accessibility based indicator. Ordinary least square and geographically weighted regression models are applied and compared to identify the influential environmental factors associated with such vulnerability. The model results indicate that intense business development, high automobile dependency, and high level of exposure of transportation network in terms of capacity reduction are the causes for increased level of accessibility based vulnerability. TAZs near freeways and arterials with higher capacity would be more likely to experience increased level of congestions caused by network disruption. In addition, demographic characteristics such as working without children could influence the regional vulnerability through its impacts on trip generation patterns. Accordingly, future adaptation planning could focus on restricting intensive business development in potential inundation areas, reduce automobile dependency, and reduce the level of infrastructure exposure through hard structure protection.
Travel Mode and Tour Complexity: The Roles of Fuel Price and Built Environment
Colin Vance, RWI EssenShow Abstract
Despite steady increases in fuel economy, CO2 emissions from road transportation in Germany are on the rise, increasing by nearly 4% since 2009. This study analyzes the impact of different policy levers for bucking this trend, focusing specifically on the role of fuel prices and features of the built environment. We estimate two multinomial logit models, one addressing work-related tours and the other non-work related tours. Both models consider two interrelated dimensions of travel on the extensive margin: mode choice and tour complexity. We use the model estimates to predict outcome probabilities for different levels of our policy variables. Our results suggest significant effects of the built environment -- measured by bike path density, urbanization, and proximity to public transit -- in discouraging car use and increasing tour complexity. Fuel prices, by contrast, appear to have little bearing on these choices.
Freight Trucks, Externalities, and the Dispatch Effect
Linda Cohen, University of California, IrvineShow Abstract
Kevin Roth, University of California, Irvine
Freight trucks cause air pollution, highway damage, and congestion. While diesel taxes reduce the pollution and congestion externalities, they worsen highway damage because a fuel price increase causes carriers to dispatch cargo on fewer but heavier trucks. Using individual truck data from California and New York and an IV approach that exploits the dual use of diesel fuel for transportation and heating, we show that a Pigouvian carbon tax on diesel fuel can lower net welfare. In the absence of a tax on axle-weight-miles (road damage), a fuel efficiency standard may welfare-dominate a diesel fuel tax as a mechanism to control carbon emissions.